China PX-PTA industrial status quo——Gao Younian, Chief director of synthetic raw materials, Sinopec
Gao analyzes 2014 textile and polyester market and then based on theses forcasts PTA, PX and MEG market.
Firstly, Gao reviews 2014 textile and polyester marke. Attribute of textile consumption and consumer‘s consumption model reform such
as online shopping will keep the textile demand growth rate at high in the long term.Lower feedstock prices will help polyester products to replace other materials in in textile and packaging fields. Considering the historical low feedstock prices, Q2 demand recovery may have impact on the market.
Secondly, PTA investment peak ended and market will see the bottom in 2015-2016. PTA market will remain depressed and in vicious competition. As the absolute price is low, inventory will decrease gradually after demand rallying, cost increasing and PX-PTA output reducing.
Thirdly, Gao concluds negative factors caused the PX price fall in 2014, then predicts market structure changes in 2015 and market concern.
Fourthly, MEG capacity growth is lower than expected and better MEG supply-demand pattern appears. Supply of non-conventional route like domestic syngas is low, exerting no practical influence on market. If the new capacity of coal chemical cannot go into operation successfully, MEG price may move up.