Asian PTA -- Cyclical Downturn or Structural Shift?——Yang Xiaoping, President of aromatic business in Asia, BP (China) Holdings
2015-04-09
Yang comments on the history of PTA industry development at the beginning of her delivery, telling a fast capacity growth in recent years in Asia, China in particular, where saw an overall shrink in import and narrowing PTA-PX spread.
Firstly, Yang considers the international trade of PTA is bond to reduce, and the prices of PTA in Asia will no longer at the mercy of China, and cost of PTA will be absorbed by polyester division to downstream. All these changes are visible. At meantime, Yang points out still growing PTA market, as no replacing product appears in the industry. Still in the futures, new PTA capacities are required to meet downstream rising demand, which may in line with the circle of commodity market.
Secondly, Yang analyzes the PTA market prospect from several aspects, like:
A. Polyester industry will keep developing new areas which lend ample space for demand growth (fiber, bottle chip).
B. Oil prices and GDP
C. PX balance in Asia and China
D. PTA industry circle
E. PTA-PX spread maintains shivering around the marginal cost
In addition, Yang proposes 4 key factors to invest in PTA market: technique advantages, energy cost, operation cost and logistic convenience.
Finally, Yang summarizes her report with all same deep-in thoughts, from crude oil demand, PX to PTA industry itself.